A FX–INFLATION REALITY CHECK ON “₦90BN vs ₦410BN”: WHY NOMINAL FIGURES DON’T PROVE “FAILURE” — THEY PROVE A WEAKER NAIRA
If we are going to argue Abia’s finances with figures (as the livestream did), then we must argue with real figures, not headline naira.
The easiest trick in Nigeria’s fiscal debate is this: quote big naira numbers in 2025/2026 and pretend they mean the same thing as naira in 2017/2019. They do not. Not even close. �
Reuters +1
1) THE “₦410BN FAAC” ARGUMENT COLLAPSES UNDER BASIC FX CONVERSION
Let’s use the SAME method critics love (money), but apply the method they avoid (value).
A Reuters-reported fiscal framework for Nigeria uses an assumed exchange rate of ₦1,512/$. �
Reuters
Now do the crude but revealing conversion:
₦90,000,000,000 ÷ ₦305/$ ≈ $295,081,967 (older-era exchange band often cited around ₦300+/$ in public discourse)
₦410,000,000,000 ÷ ₦1,512/$ ≈ $271,164,021 (current-era benchmark from Reuters fiscal framework)�
Reuters
Meaning: your “₦410BN” propaganda number can translate to less hard-currency purchasing power than the “₦90BN” era—depending on the year used—because the naira has been heavily devalued and macro-costs exploded.
Reuters
So when someone screams “₦410BN!!”, the honest response is:
“Converted to value, what did you think you proved—besides that Nigeria’s currency is weaker?”
Reuters
2) INFLATION: SAME PROJECTS COST MORE TODAY — EVEN BEFORE CORRUPTION ISSUES
Nigeria’s inflation dynamics have been driven upward in recent years by major reforms and shocks (including subsidy changes and currency adjustments), with inflation reaching multi-decade highs per Reuters reporting on Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment. �
Reuters
So the “why didn’t he do 4× more projects with 4× money?” argument is intellectually unserious because it ignores:
inflation (materials, labour, diesel, transport)
exchange rate pass-through (imported inputs, equipment, medical supplies, ICT, even spare parts)
interest-rate environment (cost of capital and contractor pricing)
In plain terms:
Reconstructing broken systems after years of decay is not “building on rocks”; it is “building while clearing ruins,” and ruins are expensive.
3) “SALARY IS NOTHING” IS A RED FLAG STATEMENT — IT IS THE GOVERNMENT’S FIRST CONTRACT
The loudest anti-governance line is: “Salary is nothing.”
No. Salary is not “nothing.” Salary is:
the legal first charge on recurrent obligations
the stabiliser of the local economy (teachers, health workers, civil servants, pensioners)
the foundation of service delivery (you cannot run hospitals, schools, sanitation, security coordination, courts—without personnel)
A society that mocks salaries is quietly endorsing institutional collapse.
4) “₦6.7BN GOVERNOR’S OFFICE” — WHY THIS ARGUMENT IS OFTEN A MISDIRECTION
Even where a governor reduces personal overhead by operating from a private residence, the state’s real costs are not the chair he sits on. The real recurrent burden is:
payroll + pensions + gratuities
MDAs running costs
utilities and security coordination
debt service obligations (where applicable)
health and education recurrent commitments
So flashing a single administrative figure as if it is the entire “cost of governance” is typically a content-creation simplification, not fiscal analysis.
5) THE PORT HARCOURT ROAD / OMENUKO BRIDGE COMPARISON: THE REAL POINT (VALUE, NOT NOISE)
The honest fiscal test is not “who shouted louder.”
It is:
What did each era leave behind in asset condition and liabilities—and what did the next era inherit to fix?
If 24 years of one political order left critical assets under-performed or dilapidated, and a new order is doing rehabilitation + redesign + flood control + drainage + asphalt structure + procurement resets, then:
yes, it can cost more than superficial patchwork—because the earlier “project” was not a durable asset.
6) THE FINAL ANSWER TO THE LIVESTREAM STYLE OF ARGUMENT
Governance is not proved by “prize challenges”, viral frames, or anger.
Public finance is proved by:
audited statements
procurement trails
sector outputs
verifiable project documentation
macro-consistent interpretation (FX + inflation + input costs)
So, to any critic running the “₦410BN vs ₦90BN” script:
Bring your figures—then bring your FX conversion, inflation context, and audited classification. Without that, you are doing theatre, not public finance.
LINK PROOFS (VERBATIM) USED IN THIS BRIEF
IMF Fiscal Transparency Code:
https://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/trans/code.htm
World Bank – Public Financial Management overview:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/governance/brief/public-financial-management
INTOSAI – standards portal:
https://www.intosai.org/standards
Reuters fiscal framework reference point showing assumed exchange rate (₦1,512/$) in Nigeria’s 2026 planning environment:
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-approves-fiscal-plan-proposing-377-billion-2026-budget-2025-12-03/
Reuters macro context on inflation/naira devaluation dynamics:
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigerias-central-bank-cuts-policy-rate-by-50-basis-points-2025-09-23/
