Tinubu’s 2027 Gamble Could Backfire Without Shettima — Baba-Ahmed
Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, former spokesperson of the Northern Elders Forum and Special Adviser on Political Matters to the Vice President, has warned that President Bola Tinubu would risk significant political backlash if he decides to drop Vice President Kashim Shettima ahead of the 2027 general election.
Speaking on Channels Television, Baba-Ahmed stated that any attempt to replace Shettima could be politically disastrous, particularly in the context of the delicate religious and regional balance that underpinned Tinubu’s victory in 2023.
He described the decision to run a Muslim-Muslim ticket in the last election as a “political joker” that narrowly worked due to unusual circumstances. According to him, replicating the same formula or attempting to alter it—especially by removing Shettima—could severely alienate key voter blocs in the North, particularly among Muslims and loyalists from the North-East.
“You have offended the Muslims, the people who walked every inch of the way with you,” Baba-Ahmed said, referencing the political sacrifice made by many Muslim and northern constituencies who set aside sectarian sensitivities to support the Tinubu-Shettima ticket. “So if you remove the Vice President now, for whatever reason, you will not just offend them again you will alienate them.”
He warned that any plan to substitute Shettima with another running mate, particularly from the North-Central or a Christian candidate, would be seen as betrayal and could backfire electorally. “You cannot now say ‘I’m removing him and I’m going to put a Christian as my running mate’ or ‘I’m going to take somebody from the North-Central.’ It won’t work.”
Baba-Ahmed noted that Nigerians are becoming more politically aware and would not accept a ticket or political arrangement that appears motivated by opportunism or electoral expediency. “It’s the governance thing that you will take to the electorate at the end. It’s not the ticket. Nigerians are going to say, ‘What did you do in the first four years?’”
In 2023, Tinubu’s decision to run alongside Shettima, both Muslims from the South-West and North-East respectively, was heavily criticised by Christian groups and sparked national debate. The ticket nevertheless prevailed against a divided opposition, but Baba-Ahmed suggested that the victory came at a cost and cannot be easily repeated under the same formula or with major alterations.
“This Muslim-Muslim ticket was a political joker. You cannot use that joker again. It’s spent,” he said firmly. “It worked once, because there were very unusual circumstances… but it won’t work again.”
He also advised the Tinubu administration to focus on governance rather than political scheming. “This administration is already wasting time on political calculations 2027 is too far. People want to see real progress now.”
The remarks come amid growing speculation in political circles that Tinubu may be under pressure to reconfigure his political team ahead of the next presidential election. Some reports have suggested that the President may be exploring options to broaden his appeal by choosing a running mate from another region or religious group to soften criticism over the religious imbalance in his current pairing.
However, Baba-Ahmed cautioned against any move that might be seen as destabilising the current political structure or undermining the North-East’s contribution to the victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2023. “You want to go back to the same people and say, ‘We want your support again,’ after you’ve removed the one they gave you?”
He said there would be consequences for such a decision, especially from within the party’s Northern base. “The truth is: people notice these things. Loyalty matters.
Performance matters. And if you drop a key partner in victory, especially without clear and acceptable reasons, don’t expect people to queue behind you again.”
When asked about Shettima’s performance so far in office, Baba-Ahmed did not directly assess his effectiveness but noted that leadership is a collective effort. “This administration should be judged on its total output, not on who the Vice President is or isn’t.”
He also noted that the APC will need to rely on strong voter trust to retain power in 2027. “That trust will come not from juggling the ticket, but from results. Nigerians want power, jobs, security. If you give them those, you won’t need to switch running mates to win.”
